MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0825 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 140225Z - 140430Z
   
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUST OR TWO WILL EXIST ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN LA COAST THIS
   EVENING. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SCNTRL AND
   COASTAL LA WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF
   40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AROUND
   200-300 J/KG WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY LACK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
   STORMS APPEAR ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER AND THOUGH THE 0-1
   KM HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE /IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2/ EFFECTIVE STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITY IS LIKELY MUCH LOWER. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS ARE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH
   CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED MAINLY WITH STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
   COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 AND STORMS ARE ROOTED CLOSER TO
   THE SURFACE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/14/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   29079044 29379121 29469173 29599215 30009179 29789073
               29309022 29079044