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Mesoscale Discussion 117
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OHIO...SRN INDIANA...NWRN WV...NRN
   KY

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 042253Z - 050500Z

   SUMMARY...ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL
   TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING FROM NW TO SE...WITH THE SNOW
   BECOMING HEAVY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
   ANTICIPATED...WITH THE HIGHEST RATES IN PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS DEPICT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ALONG
   AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS COLLOCATED WITH AN ELONGATED ZONE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING FROM THE INTERACTION OF THE BROADER
   CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A BROAD
   BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOPING NWWD ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE POSITIVE
   TILT TO THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...LITTLE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
   FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION AREA ARE
   ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

   HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
   INFLUX OF COLDER AIR RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
   THE NW...PRECIPITATION -- PRESENTLY RAIN IN MANY AREAS -- WILL
   LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL SLEET ACCOMPANYING THE
   PRECIPITATION TRANSITION. SLEET/SNOW IS ALREADY BEING WITHIN THE
   FROM OWENSBORO-LOUISVILLE-CINCINNATI REGION...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
   BECOME PREDOMINANT TOWARD A LINE FROM LEXINGTON KY TO HUNTINGTON WV
   AROUND 01-03Z.

   THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING AUGMENTS COLD
   ADVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. RATES
   TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
   PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
   COOLING TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES AND
   AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE/ASCENT IS EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN.. 03/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   39158128 38378212 37768455 37518655 37698756 38258736
               39218470 39468199 39158128 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2015
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