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Mesoscale Discussion 117
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of north FL and south GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...

   Valid 222002Z - 222100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.

   SUMMARY...The onset of a dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing. A
   line of potentially tornadic supercells is spreading eastward around
   45-50 kt. Long-track, fast-moving, strong tornadoes will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A line of discrete/semi-discrete supercells extending
   from far southwest GA to central/eastern portions of the FL
   Panhandle will continue spreading eastward around 45-50 kt.
   Approximate times of arrival of this line are depicted in the
   accompanying graphical product. Storm-relative motion from radar
   suggests tightening/strengthening low-level mesocyclones with this
   activity. This activity now lies east of a front that arcs northward
   to surface low pressure over central AL featuring a deepening rate
   of over 1 mb per hour. Preceding pressure falls of 7-9 mb per 2
   hours have been noted, with open-warm-sector pressure falls of 3-6
   mb per 2 hours. As a plume of high theta-e air continues to stream
   northward to a warm front advancing north across south GA (serving
   as convective inflow), and very strong low-level SRH (around 550
   m2/s2 in the lowest 1 km above ground per Tallahassee VAD wind
   profile) continues given the strong surface cyclogenesis, the
   potential for significant, long-track, fast-moving tornadoes will
   exist.

   ..Cohen.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31558464 32018406 31958312 31148294 29988310 29708361
               29668433 30018477 31558464 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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