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Mesoscale Discussion 118
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...east-central AL into west-central GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...

   Valid 222028Z - 222200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will spread northeast from
   east-central AL into west-central GA, including the greater Atlanta
   metro area over the next 1-2 hours. While the greatest severe risk
   should remain south of the ATL area, strong wind gusts and small
   hail cannot be ruled out. Additionally, at least a low-end tornado
   threat will exist across southern portions of the MCD area.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms located very near the surface low
   center across east-central AL will continue to pivot northeast into
   adjacent west-central GA, including the great Atlanta area. The
   thermodynamic environment across this area is unimpressive, being
   just north of the better warm sector across parts of central and
   southern GA. However, this line of storms has been rather intense
   with strong winds and small hail indicated by radar. In fact, even
   in the stratiform rain region to the north and west, BHM measured a
   35 kt gust. Furthermore, on the southern end of line, some cells
   have occasionally exhibited low-level rotation. This is not too
   surprising given shear profiles which have large, curved hodographs,
   especially in the lowest 3km. In fact, the FFC VWP showed nearly 400
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH. Given the degree of deep layer shear, modest lapse
   rates per 18z BMX and FFC RAOBs, at least some continuation of
   strong wind gusts and perhaps some small hail appears possible as
   storms track toward the Atlanta area in the next 1-2 hours.
   Additionally, at least a low-end threat for a tornado can not be
   ruled out, especially across southern portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33628582 33788488 33708449 33518431 33298411 32868416
               32488443 32318475 32488536 33308599 33468602 33628582 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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