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Mesoscale Discussion 118
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 050051Z - 050645Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A
   TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ON THE TX
   COASTAL PLAINS WITH A SUBFREEZING AIRMASS SETTLING IN OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE TOP OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF SAN ANGELO.
   SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD INTO NCNTRL
   TX AND THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO A WARM
   LAYER ABOVE 850 MB EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE PREDOMINANT
   PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY ALSO
   OCCUR. PRECIPITATION RATES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS.  LOCALLY HIGHER RATES MAY
   OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32330030 32849864 32929790 32709748 32299752 31849791
               31249915 31030070 31020180 31700185 32090096 32330030 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2015
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