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Mesoscale Discussion 119
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...portions of southeast GA and southern SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 222102Z - 222230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Intense storms will track northeast from south-central GA
   into parts of southeast GA and southern SC over the next several
   hours. Strong, damaging winds, tornadoes and some hail will be
   possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A line of intense storms is currently tracking
   northeast across south central GA at about 50 kt. This will bring
   this line of cells into the MCD area around 23z. There is some
   uncertainty with regards to how far north a greater severe/tornado
   threat will extend given limited heating and ample rainfall across
   this area today. However...some broken cloudiness across parts of
   southeast GA into southwest SC has allowed for some airmass recovery
   with temperatures and dewpoints rebounding at least a couple of
   degrees over the last hour or two. Additionally, low level shear
   profiles will improve this evening as the upper shortwave impulse
   continues to eject east-northeast and as the surface low moves
   across northern GA. Furthermore, hi-res guidance continues to
   indicate that a small wedge of the better warm sector airmass will
   extend into parts of the southern Savannah River valley this
   evening. This should continue to foster a threat for strong,
   damaging wind in addition to tornadoes. A watch will likely be
   needed soon for the area.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   31248134 31398163 31808218 32448244 32948226 33258198
               33588114 33708050 33627995 33507978 33067933 32657971
               31828089 31248134 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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