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Mesoscale Discussion 121
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND S TX EWD TO THE
   MIDDLE TX COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 18...

   VALID 230854Z - 231030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 18
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   WW...AND EWD INTO THE WRN GULF.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN
   THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
   MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN TX ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH
   AN AREA OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT MAX/JET LEFT
   EXIT REGION.  THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE NOW CROSSING SRN PORTIONS OF
   THE WW S OF SAT AND NW OF CRP.  THE STORMS -- COMPRISED OF A SERIES
   OF FAIRLY INTENSE/SMALL BANDS -- ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD TOWARD THE
   COAST.  LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXIST ACROSS COASTAL AREAS PER
   LATEST ANALYSIS...THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NONETHELESS APPEARS TO
   REMAIN VERY SLIGHTLY STABLE.  STILL...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
   STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE AND YIELD LOCAL
   DAMAGE.  ATTM...A MORE STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER TX
   COAST AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTING
   ENELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA.  THUS...NEW WW APPEARS
   UNNECESSARY ATTM FARTHER E ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST. 
   MEANWHILE...LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF THE EXISTING WW IN TIME/AREA MAY
   PROVE NECESSARY /GIVEN THE SCHEDULED 23/10Z EXPIRATION OF THE WW
   0018/...UNTIL THE RISK FULLY SHIFTS INTO THE WRN GULF.

   ..GOSS.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28190018 29109964 29559849 29679717 29459581 29109457
               28749461 27939696 28190018 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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