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Mesoscale Discussion 122
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201734Z - 201930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DISCRETE TSTMS
   FORMING NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE. UNCERTAINTIES DO
   EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE SUSTAINABILITY/INTENSITY OF UPDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 991 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN
   MO AROUND 35 S CDJ WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL.
   A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN MO WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT
   TRAILING THE DRYLINE BY ABOUT 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU/SMALL CBS FORMING
   ALONG THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION. WITH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL
   JET AOA 100 KT OVERSPREADING THE LOWER MO TO MID-MS VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME EXTREME WITHIN THIS PORTION
   OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN
   WEAK GIVEN VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
   RESULTING IN LOWERING OF DEW POINTS AND RELATIVELY ABUNDANT STRATOCU
   NEAR THE FRONT IN MO. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON...THEY LARGELY FAIL TO GREATLY INTENSIFY UPDRAFTS LIKELY
   OWING TO THE DEGREE OF EXTREME SHEAR RELATIVE TO WEAK BUOYANCY.
   STILL...IF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WERE TO BECOME SUSTAINED...ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39119328 39559298 39869135 40079057 40009010 39748985
               39618972 39208962 38499020 37899126 37509261 37589311
               38389302 39119328 

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Page last modified: February 20, 2014
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