MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA INTO SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 181957Z - 182130Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  ENVIRONMENT IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING
   CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR CSG SSWWD TO JUST E OF CEW.
   THINNING HIGH CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMING/MOISTENING WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS RESULTING
   IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.  MODIFICATION OF 18Z LIX/TLH SOUNDINGS
   FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE MAY BE
   APPROACHING 800-1000 J/KG.  WARM NOSE OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST ABOVE
   700 MB MAY BE CURRENTLY RESTRICTING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT
   EVOLUTION...HOWEVER THIS WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME AS
   ENVIRONMENT UNDERGOES FURTHER MOISTENING.
   
   LOCAL VWPS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
   FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS /I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 KT AND 0-6 KM
   SHEAR OF 60-65 KT/.  PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN SHOULD
   CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT SUCH THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY BECOME
   ESTABLISHED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   31348640 31948589 32788549 33328473 33448416 32958328
               31618328 30578407 30008459 29848502 30108574 30568650
               31348640