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Mesoscale Discussion 125
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 19...

   VALID 231825Z - 231930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 19 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS/TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 19.

   DISCUSSION...LIX VWP DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS
   ON THE ORDER OF 2.0-3.5-MB PER 2 HOURS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF LA.
   THE HODOGRAPH FROM THE 18Z LIX RAOB IMPLIES AMPLE STREAMWISE
   VORTICITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1-KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. WITH FURTHER INLAND
   FLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
   /DEWPOINTS AROUND 65F EXTENDING AS FAR N AS MCB/...DESTABILIZATION
   WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS NOT AS 
   ROBUST -- PARTICULARLY IN PARTS OF SERN LA. MEANWHILE...MIXED
   CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW
   DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING NNEWD/NEWD
   ACROSS SRN LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON -- EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO MS. SUSTAINED MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRODUCING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY
   OCCURRED...AND ADDITIONAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR FURTHER INCREASES.

   ..COHEN.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29649253 30779189 30949061 30598934 30048881 29278970
               29119087 29649253 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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