Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 126
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 126 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN/S-CNTRL
   AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231915Z - 232115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FURTHER INCREASING DURING
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO CNTRL/SRN
   MS...WITH THE TORNADO RISK SPREADING INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REFLECTED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE
   FALLS OF 2.0-3.5 MB ARE ANALYZED AHEAD OF A SFC LOW CENTERED N OF
   LUFKIN TX. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD TO A
   WARM FRONT BRANCHING E/ENE OF THE LOW INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND
   EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. POCKETS
   OF MODEST INSOLATION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DESTABILIZATION S OF
   THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND
   500-1000 J PER KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20/.

   MIXED-MODE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES
   EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA...AS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED
   MCD 0125. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD/NEWD THIS
   AFTERNOON AMIDST A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...EVENTUALLY
   EXTENDING N OF WW 19 PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. LATER...THE RISK
   FOR SVR CONVECTION INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF
   SWRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EVENING. LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS HAVE
   ALREADY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2 FROM
   SERN MS AND POINTS EWD THIS EVENING AS H85 SLYS INCREASE TO 50-65
   KT. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE
   FL PANHANDLE.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32449007 32438803 32008654 30828645 30448710 30138918
               30469078 31059132 31769122 32449007 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 23, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities