Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 128
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 128 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...

   VALID 232130Z - 232300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL/SRN MS.

   DISCUSSION...CG LIGHTNING TRENDS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST A BAND OF
   DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING NWD NEAR/JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. THIS
   ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A ZONE OF INTENSE DCVA/ASCENT PRECEDING A
   COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX. DOWNSTREAM
   THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS SAMPLED BY THE 20Z JAN
   RAOB SUGGEST MEAGER -- THOUGH NON-ZERO -- MLCAPE...WITH A WIDESPREAD
   SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS LIMITING WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY.
   REGARDLESS...WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AN APPROACHING SFC
   LOW FALLING AT A RATE OF AROUND 1 MB PER HOUR /ON AVERAGE/ PRECEDED
   BY 2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-4 MB...VERY INTENSE DEEP ASCENT
   WILL OFFSET THE OVERALL PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY. FURTHERMORE...WITH
   0-1-KM AND 0-3-KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND 45 KT...
   RESPECTIVELY -- AS SAMPLED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RAOB -- STORM-SCALE
   HYDRODYNAMIC PERTURBATION-PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BOLSTER UPDRAFTS.
   QLCS SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES WITHIN THE NWD-DEVELOPING BAND...AND
   PRECEDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SURROUNDED BY THE BROADER PRECIP
   SHIELD...WILL OFFER SOME TORNADO/DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL. THIS INCLUDES
   THE JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

   ..COHEN.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31549102 32089091 32849043 33109000 32898947 31948986
               31559050 31549102 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 23, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities