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Mesoscale Discussion 128
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 210000Z - 210500Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI THIS
   EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING ROUGHLY WITHIN 50-75 MILES
   EITHER SIDE OF THE MN/WI STATE LINE.

   DISCUSSION...MIDWEST CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STEADILY DEEPEN EARLY THIS
   EVENING...WITH A 988 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE DUBUQUE IA
   VICINITY AS OF 23Z...WITH CONSEQUENTIAL 4-5 MB/2-HR PRESSURE FALLS
   FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WI. WITH
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ALREADY BEING REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN
   MN/FAR WESTERN WI...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE WET
   BULB 32F LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD /ROUGHLY
   20 MILES PER HR/ ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST WI AS OF EARLY
   EVENING. ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
   WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE OWING TO COLD ADVECTION
   AND ONSET OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES/SATURATION.

   CONSEQUENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COINCIDE WITH A
   POTENTIALLY SHARPENING DEFORMATION ZONE TO YIELD HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION RATES...INCLUDING A SUSTENANCE/SOME POTENTIAL INCREASE
   OF HEAVIER SNOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ACROSS
   WESTERN WI DURING THE EVENING. IN RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO AN EVOLVING
   MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND...NEARBY DRY SLOT /WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
   AND MID-LEVEL WEAK STATIC STABILITY/EPV REDUCTION SHOULD FURTHER
   ENHANCE SNOW RATES WHILE POTENTIALLY YIELDING RELATIVELY
   STRONG/SPATIALLY CONTRACTING NNE-SSW ORIENTED SNOW BANDS THROUGH THE
   EVENING. SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY TO YIELD 1-2 IN/HR RATES WITH
   THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI THIS
   EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44439211 44929354 47339280 48279084 47188950 45928989
               44919093 44439211 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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