Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 129
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 129 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192045Z - 192245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY
   22-23Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR
   A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD NEAR/SW OF KSPS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN
   RESPONSE TO INCREASED INSOLATION AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BL
   ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S AND TDS
   INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT
   FROM WEAK DCVA AND AN APPROACHING JET MAXIMA ALOFT...SHOWERS/TSTMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
   VICINITY OF A SFC LOW ANALYZED E OF KLBB/KPVW AND EXTENDING ALONG A
   WARM FRONT TO THE E/SE OF THAT LOW.

   ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST MLCAPE UP TO 500-900 J/KG. WITH FAIRLY
   MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GENERALLY AROUND 6-6.5 C PER
   KM/...VERTICAL ACCELERATION IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE IS LIKELY TO BE
   RELATIVELY MODEST. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT
   SHOULD SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. AS SUCH...A
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH ANY STRONGER
   SUPERCELLULAR/MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING. FURTHERMORE...WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY
   WEAK...ENHANCED SRH RESULTING FROM BACKED WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE FRONT WILL OFFER A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A WEAK TORNADO /GENERALLY
   NEAR-SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS/. HOWEVER...CELLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
   ELEVATED AS THEY SPREAD NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ENDING ANY SMALL
   TORNADO THREAT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER
   THIS EVENING...AS CELLS PROGRESS EWD INTO A MORE-HOSTILE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   ..PICCA/GUYER.. 03/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32699807 32389925 32490012 33090037 33350047 33790067
               33950084 34210059 34219992 34139845 33749781 33209766
               32699807 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 19, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities