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Mesoscale Discussion 129
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...WRN MS...SERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 9...

   VALID 210055Z - 210230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 9 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. WW
   EXTENSION IN TIME AND/OR AREA MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOCALIZED THREAT
   BEYOND 02Z OR OUTSIDE OF CURRENT WW AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS.

   DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
   EXTENDED FROM NEAR PBF SWD TO NEAR LFK AT 00Z. A STRONGLY-SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND MLCAPE RANGES FROM
   NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS TO AROUND 300 J/KG OVER NRN
   AREAS. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE COLD
   FRONT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS THE WW...A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE HAS
   DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING
   WIND/EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX THREAT. OVER SRN SECTIONS OF WW...SHEAR
   VECTORS ARE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO COLD FRONT AND MORE DISCRETE CELLS
   WERE NOTED. IN ADDITION...SFC AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH THETA-E AIR NWD AND ALSO
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/RISK OF
   A TORNADO ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

   LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED/LOCALIZED SVR
   THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 02Z OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AND
   POTENTIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF WW. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA/TIME MAY
   BE NEEDED.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29899364 29949422 30459455 30889440 31759356 32539240
               33379160 33949084 33919049 33899000 33558975 32139132
               30229322 29899364 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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