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Mesoscale Discussion 130
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192336Z - 200100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY
   OUTFLOW WINDS...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS /THROUGH ABOUT
   01Z/.  THE CLAY COUNTY TX SUPERCELL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK AS IT
   INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS FORMED EARLIER TO THE E OF THE TRIPLE
   POINT IN NW TX...AND THIS CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INVOF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN
   THE OPEN WARM SECTOR IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6.5
   C/KM...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST
   ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW...BUT
   SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY WITH EWD/NEWD EXTENT
   ACROSS THE FRONT.  THUS...THE ONGOING STORMS /PRIMARILY THE CLAY
   COUNTY SUPERCELL/ APPEAR TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AS THE UPDRAFT
   INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT.  THE STORMS MAY REMAIN WITHIN THE
   FRONTAL ZONE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ESEWD PROPAGATION...BUT
   GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
   FRONT THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
   FROM 00-01Z.  IN THE INTERIM...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..THOMPSON.. 03/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33539742 33289717 33089725 32999765 33089816 33099860
               33069881 33229904 33529893 33789854 33819805 33699775
               33539742 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2015
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