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Mesoscale Discussion 130
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

   Areas affected...West-central Florida Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230956Z - 231130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, primarily
   along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, as a fast-moving band of
   thunderstorms moves onshore from Tampa/St. Petersburg to Fort Myers
   between 10-11Z.  The threat for strong wind gusts will be greatest
   near the coast.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery and IR satellite imagery showed a
   fast-moving (50 kt) band of low-topped thunderstorms approaching the
   west-central Florida Gulf Coast, with this band expected to reach
   the Tampa/St. Petersburg area around 10Z, and then into Fort Myers
   by 11Z.  This activity was located within the leading area of upward
   vertical motion with a progressive shortwave trough advancing east
   through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Marginal instability and a
   steep low-level lapse rate environment (0-3 km of 7-7.5 c/km) near
   the coast could prove favorable for momentum transfer of stronger
   winds to the surface.  A more stable low-level environment inland
   away from the coast should allow the storms to weaken and limit
   stronger winds from reaching the surface.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 01/23/2017


   LAT...LON   28008287 27968266 27368248 26838214 26658224 26948258
               27548289 27918292 28008287 

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