Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 131
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 131 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222257Z - 230100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A W-E WARM FRONT ACROSS
   SRN AL EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK LOW INVOF THE SERN MS/SWRN AL
   BORDER...WITH A ZONE OF CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THIS SAME
   GENERAL AREA.  NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 60S IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME HEATING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
   CLOUD-FREE ZONE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST CAPE -- SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.  THOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS
   PROVIDING AMPLE SPEED SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/
   LONGEVITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WEAK CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT LOW-END SEVERE RISK WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.  ONE SUCH
   STORM -- A WEAK SUPERCELL NOW CROSSING THE MS/AL BORDER AND MOVING
   INTO NWRN WASHINGTON COUNTY AL -- HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.  EXPECT THIS RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   STRONG GUST OR TWO TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THE LOSS
   OF DIURNAL HEATING SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY TO COMMENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 03/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30598949 31238915 31698865 32028723 32038570 31858453
               31408429 30968475 30438847 30598949 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 23, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities