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Mesoscale Discussion 132
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 230547Z - 230945Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR...LOCALLY TO 3 IN/HR
   WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
   MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE SOUTHEAST
   FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA
   INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. METARS CONFIRM 1/4-1/2 MILE VISIBILITY ALONG
   THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION BAND...WITH
   STORM REPORTS OF 7-8 INCHES FALLING EARLIER FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN
   TWIN CITIES METRO TOWARDS ROCHESTER. 

   VAD WIND-PROFILE AT DES MOINES/DAVENPORT RADARS SAMPLED A VERY LARGE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH INDICATIVE OF THE ROBUST WAA AHEAD OF THE LEAD
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS CHICAGO BY LATE MORNING.
   EVENING GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS WAA PROFILE/STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
   THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER...THUNDERSNOW MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
   SOUTHEAST AS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SREF AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING 1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL
   RATES...LOCALLY TO 3 IN/HR PROGRESSING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
   12Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43449269 43829254 44079216 44029155 43679042 43288920
               42658849 42248837 41888866 41728908 41688959 41909020
               42119082 42729195 43049239 43449269 

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Page last modified: March 23, 2015
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