MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 100641Z - 100815Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCLUDE HAIL/WIND AND AT LEAST SOME
   TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   
   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING BROKEN NNE-SSW BAND OF TSTMS NEAR
   AN ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT...A SEPARATE/LEADING AREA OF TSTMS
   HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED GENERALLY NEAR I-10 EAST OF JUNCTION ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX. INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ASIDE AS DEDUCED
   PER IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE
   WITH A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE WITHIN A WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME AND A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
   IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THESE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
   EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...PRIOR TO ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH THE
   UPSTREAM NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 0630Z. WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS
   NOT ROBUST...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERE-CALIBER
   UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME. ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
   WARMTH/MOISTURE...ACCENTUATED BY A STEADY RETURN OF MIDDLE 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED
   TSTMS...WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM MORE
   PROBABLE BOUTS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL. LATEST WSR-88D
   VWP DATA FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS INDICATIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH ON THE
   ORDER OF 250-300 M2/S2.
   
   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   29680019 30270034 30959820 30439650 29279822 29680019