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| Mesoscale Discussion 132 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 100641Z - 100815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCLUDE HAIL/WIND AND AT LEAST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING BROKEN NNE-SSW BAND OF TSTMS NEAR
AN ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT...A SEPARATE/LEADING AREA OF TSTMS
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED GENERALLY NEAR I-10 EAST OF JUNCTION ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX. INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ASIDE AS DEDUCED
PER IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE
WITH A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE WITHIN A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THESE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...PRIOR TO ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH THE
UPSTREAM NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 0630Z. WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS
NOT ROBUST...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERE-CALIBER
UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME. ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
WARMTH/MOISTURE...ACCENTUATED BY A STEADY RETURN OF MIDDLE 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED
TSTMS...WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM MORE
PROBABLE BOUTS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL. LATEST WSR-88D
VWP DATA FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS INDICATIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH ON THE
ORDER OF 250-300 M2/S2.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29680019 30270034 30959820 30439650 29279822 29680019
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