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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/MUCH OF GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...
VALID 190158Z - 190330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL INTO MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
A NUMBER OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AL INTO NORTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL
GA...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR ABOUT 25-50 MILES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN
THE SHORT TERM GIVEN AMPLE NUMBER OF ROTATING TSTMS WITHIN A RICH
LOW LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL FAVOR STEADILY COOLING TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH INCREASING SURFACE BASED CINH.
FURTHERMORE...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND LINEAR ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
UPSTREAM PREFRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
MS/AL/GA. IN ALL...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND
BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WHILE AMPLE DEEP LAYER/LARGELY
UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL NEVERTHELESS ACCOUNT FOR A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 02/19/2009
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 33418532 33668341 33318175 32188269 31298558 33418532
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