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Mesoscale Discussion 133
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0723 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MS / W-CNTRL AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...22...

   VALID 240123Z - 240200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21...22...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AND FURTHER
   DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS E-CNTRL MS AND W-CNTRL AL.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SHIELD
   ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN MS EWD INTO W-CNTRL AL TO THE NORTH OF MORE
   ROBUST STORM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN AL.  THE ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF THE
   CONVECTIVE SHIELD OVER W-CNTRL AL IS LIKELY CHARACTERIZED AS VERY
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 100 J/KG.  VEERING 1-2
   KM FLOW PER KDGX IMAGERY SUGGESTS HODOGRAPH SIZE HAS DECREASED
   SUBSTANTIALLY IN CNTRL MS AND THIS VEERING OF FLOW WILL ACT TO
   GREATLY LESSEN TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.  WHILE AN ISOLD
   STRONGER WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
   LIKELY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER STORM
   ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
   EVENING.

   ..SMITH.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32078793 33398954 33838930 33758753 33068691 32078793 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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