MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA/FL
   PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26...27...28...
   
   VALID 190455Z - 190630Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   26...27...28...CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 26/27/28 CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z/07Z/10Z
   RESPECTIVELY...WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
   THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST GA/FAR NORTHEAST FL WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY AROUND
   0530-06Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/EVENING UPPER ANALYSIS IMPLIES SOUTHEAST-DIGGING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND AN
   INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL
   AND NORTH GA. ACCORDINGLY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONGEALED/BECOME
   MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AL INTO SC.
   EVEN WITH A NOCTURNALLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER...STRENGTHENING DEEP
   LAYER WIND FIELDS PER WSR-88D VWPS/RUC GUIDANCE AND FAST 45-55 KT
   STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH
   ANY BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN GA/FAR NORTH
   FL WHERE SURFACE BASED CINH IS WEAKEST. IN THESE SAME AREAS...A
   TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY
   BOWS/QLCS-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH OF
   200-500 MS/S2 AMIDST SUFFICIENTLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/19/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   33588171 33947888 31898091 30668198 29988511 30988850
               32788512 33588171