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Mesoscale Discussion 134
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW MO...SE KS...NW AR...E OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241905Z - 242030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z IN FAR SE KS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
   THEREAFTER.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
   LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST
   SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN SE KS...WITH LATER
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH/TRAILING COLD FRONT.  A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING NORTH RAPIDLY
   OVER SW MO...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   LOW/WARM FRONT AS THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

   ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MODEST /MLCAPE
   VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 1500 J PER KG IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR
   ADVECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT/...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ORIENTED
   LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INITIAL DISCRETE
   SUPERCELL MODES. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF THE WARM
   FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED
   IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...INCLUDING THOSE
   THAT SPREAD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN 1000-1500 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE...UNTIL THE ABUNDANT CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR DISRUPTS
   THE UNSTABLE PARCELS ASCENDING NORTH OF THE FRONT. DMGG WIND GUSTS
   ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT.

   ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36279565 36629560 37389577 37789572 38309523 38609463
               38639345 38389280 37789199 37129189 36349220 35659283
               35219317 34809394 34549445 34319512 34189573 34289618
               34609626 35149602 35689574 36279565 

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Page last modified: March 24, 2015
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