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Mesoscale Discussion 135
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW MO...NW AR...E OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5...

   VALID 242230Z - 250000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE
   AREA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WITH THE MAIN THREAT
   BEING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS SW MO INTO FAR NW AR AND FAR NE OK. INITIAL CELLS HAVE BEEN
   DISCRETE BUT CLOSELY-SPACED. STORM INTERACTIONS HAVE PREVENTED
   LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THUS FAR...BUT ONE STORM HAS EMERGED
   AS DOMINANT AND HAS PRODUCED UP TO PING-PONG BALL SIZED HAIL FROM
   CRAWFORD COUNTY KANSAS TO BARTON COUNTY MISSOURI.  A FEW ADDITIONAL
   CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NW
   ARKANSAS...WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   LOW WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL THREAT.  A TORNADO OR TWO STILL
   CANNOT BE RULED WITH EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
   200-250 M2/S2 AND LOWER T/TD SPREADS INVOF THE WARM FRONT FOR ANY
   STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.  OTHERWISE THE MAIN THREAT WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   FURTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION HAS YET TO INITIATE
   ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS
   CONSIDERABLY.  LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO
   FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SUPPORT A
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

   ..CONIGLIO/MOSIER.. 03/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37069541 38809544 39449465 39519333 39209184 37919139
               35459246 34639347 34509578 35079614 37069541 

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Page last modified: March 25, 2015
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