Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 137
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 137 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC AND NC THROUGH SWRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 210811Z - 210945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MIGHT CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AS THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD SWRN VA...WRN NC AND WRN
   SC. SOME LIMITING FACTORS ARE AT PLAY...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE DURING
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL WV SWWD THROUGH ERN TN
   AND NWRN GA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD...AND IS BEING FORCED BY A
   STRONG 60 KT SLY LLJ WHICH IS AUGMENTING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST
   FRONT. A FEW DISCRETE CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO WRN SC AHEAD OF
   THE LINE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS FROM SRN VA THEN NWD THROUGH SWRN VA AND ERN WV. A RELATIVE
   DEWPOINT MINIMUM /55F/ EXISTS IN THAT PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS PROMOTING A STABLE NEAR-SFC
   LAYER AND MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA HAVE
   SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION TO STORMS MOVING THROUGH
   ERN TN. HOWEVER...MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING
   SUPPORTED BY THE LLJ MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
   STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL BOWING
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35938267 37168183 37168110 36508103 35898059 34568209
               34418299 35938267 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities