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Mesoscale Discussion 137
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast/east central Minnesota into
   northwestern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 301615Z - 301845Z

   SUMMARY...Transient heavier snow bands with 1+ inch per hour rates
   possible across the region through around 17-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...In association with a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak digging
   across the Dakotas, toward the upper Mississippi Valley,
   strengthening lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric
   frontogentic forcing appears well underway north/east of Brainerd MN
   into areas near/west of Eau Claire WI.  This likely includes the
   favorable mixed-phase layer for large dendritic ice crystal growth,
   and latest model output (including the Rapid Refresh) suggests it
   may persist into at least the 17-19Z time frame, while gradually
   shifting eastward/southeastward.  

   Given a cold and saturating low-level environment (including near
   surface temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s), supporting
   relatively high snow to liquid water ratios, and modest precipitable
   water content (on the order of .40 inches), snow rates probably will
   exceed 1 inch per hour at times in the transient heavier bands
   through mid afternoon.  Thereafter, guidance generally suggests that
   heavier snow will continue to develop east southeastward across the
   Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, but with diminishing
   potential for 1 inch per hour snow rates.

   ..Kerr.. 01/30/2017


   LAT...LON   46989444 47689276 46469128 45589007 44808973 44679080
               44979241 45749298 46989444 

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