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Mesoscale Discussion 137
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...

   VALID 241148Z - 241315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS WW 25.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION
   PLUME OVER THE WW AREA. VWP DATA INDICATE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR OVER THE
   REGION -- ON THE ORDER OF 50-75 KT -- THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STRONG FLOW /40-55 KT/ IN
   THE LOWEST 1 KM ABOVE GROUND WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO YIELD DMGG WIND GUSTS. SOME TORNADO
   RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH MORE SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION --
   PARTICULARLY THAT MOVING ASHORE ACROSS NRN FL PREVIOUSLY INTERACTING
   WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...RESTRICTIONS TO
   BUOYANCY OWING TO INLAND NOCTURNAL COOLING COUPLED WITH NUMEROUS
   CELL INTERACTIONS MAY TEND TO TEMPER THE OVERALL SVR RISK IN THE
   SHORT TERM. REGARDLESS...SOME SVR RISK WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE
   ATLANTIC COAST IN SRN SC...SERN GA...AND NRN FL IN THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS -- POTENTIALLY WARRANTING LOCAL EXPANSION OF THE WW.

   ..COHEN.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28448308 30968285 32568211 33018144 32988078 32858016
               32458033 31168138 29958158 28468229 28448308 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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