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Mesoscale Discussion 141
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
   TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251950Z - 252145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THERE IS
   SOME POSSIBILITY FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...VIS-IMAGERY-IMPLIED ACCAS ATTENDANT TO ASCENT AT THE
   SRN PERIPHERY OF A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL LOOPS IS EVIDENT NEAR AND S OF THE RED RIVER. THE
   CHARACTER OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS IS EVOLVING...WITH MORE
   ROBUST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THEIR PHASING WITH DIURNALLY DEEPENED PBL CIRCULATIONS. SFC
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALIGNING WITH THE WRN EDGE
   OF THE ACCAS ZONE FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR CLINTON OK SSWWD INTO
   WRN N TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...WITH
   TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO ITS W...ASSOCIATED WITH
   NEAR-DRY-ADIABATIC 0-3-KM LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED CINH FOR A
   SFC-BASED PARCEL...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD OCCUR
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD OCCUR EITHER WITHIN THE
   ZONE OF ACCAS OR NEAR THE DRYLINE.

   GIVEN STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1500-3000 J/KG
   AMIDST 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR E OF THE DRYLINE...A
   CONDITIONAL SVR-WIND/HAIL RISK EXISTS. IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ONLY
   MODEST...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION IS LIMITED. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33089743 32369866 32569993 33139981 33719955 34479933
               34489889 34219802 34079740 33089743 

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Page last modified: March 25, 2015
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