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Mesoscale Discussion 142
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1016 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CAROLINAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241616Z - 241745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST/GRADUALLY INCREASE PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
   RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND
   TRENDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARY
   ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.

   DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SC HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
   HALF HOUR INCLUDING A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STRONG SUPERCELLS. A
   CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION...BUT
   TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S F IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTION VIA MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED/SHORT-TERM SOUNDINGS.
   LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO
   RISK...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS ACCENTUATED BY RECENT
   350-450 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH AS PER RALEIGH/MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP
   DATA.

   ..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34047910 35067884 35857826 36897657 36017552 34937597
               33737807 34047910 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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