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Mesoscale Discussion 143
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241642Z - 241745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS THEY
   APPROACH THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AROUND MIDDAY. 
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE ABOUT
   50 S OF SRQ... IS MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE WESTERN
   FLORIDA COAST /ESPECIALLY NEAR MANATEE/SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE/LEE
   COUNTIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST.  OTHER CONVECTION IS
   GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS INITIAL BAND OVER EASTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO SHORE THAT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE...MODERATE INSTABILITY
   /AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG/...DEEP SHEAR /35-50 KNOTS/ SUFFICIENT FOR
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  AT THIS TIME...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO
   MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN
   LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 20-30 KNOTS.

   ALTHOUGH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
   THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...SOME
   QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS SOME OF THE
   UPDRAFTS STRUGGLE AGAINST RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. 
   FURTHERMORE...ANY TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.

   ..COOK/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28148288 28538264 28848234 28988198 29028157 28828102
               28028050 27208036 26028056 25778100 25748131 25948161
               26128176 26748237 28148288 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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