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Mesoscale Discussion 144
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY...NERN AR
   AND NWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 252346Z - 260045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH
   SERN MO INTO EXTREME SRN IL AND EVENTUALLY FAR WRN KY...NERN AR AND
   NWRN TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   SOON.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING SFC AND RADAR DATA INDICATE A FRONT
   SETTLING SWD THROUGH SRN IL...AND SRN MO. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH
   MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...LLJ WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
   THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
   TO STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT EXPANDING EWD WITH
   TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   SUPERCELL STORM NOW OVER SHANNON COUNTY IN SERN MO WILL BE MOVING
   EAST OF WW 6 BEFORE 0030Z.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37399094 37658962 37598830 36798811 36188875 36279075
               37399094 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2015
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