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Mesoscale Discussion 145
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC AND MD/DC METRO AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241818Z - 242015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON FROM UPSTATE/PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF NC INTO
   SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL VA AND EVENTUALLY ADJACENT MD/DC METRO
   VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG /EF2+/
   TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING AREAS SPANNING
   RALEIGH/DURHAM NC AND THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDORS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
   THE RICHMOND VA VICINITY. A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS HIGHLY LIKELY
   FOR SOUTHERN VA BY AROUND 19Z/2 PM EST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO
   WATCH ISSUANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
   OF VA/MD AND DC METRO AREA.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /1 PM EST/...MULTIPLE
   NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BANDS OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE STORMS ARE ONGOING IN
   TWO DISTINCT CORRIDORS...ONE ACROSS WESTERN NC AND THE OTHER ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL NC...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEEN
   NOTED ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. AN
   EROSION/NORTHWARD-SHIFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS A
   WARM FRONT EFFECTIVELY ANGLES SOUTHWEST/NORTHEASTWARD AT THE PRESENT
   TIME FROM WESTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VA.
   GIVEN THAT REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA ARE
   SAMPLING AN EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND INCREASING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS RESPONSE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION...IT
   SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE/SHIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION/FRONTAL WEDGE EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR.

   ..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36358067 37677980 38917802 38907686 38227584 36797638
               35577882 36358067 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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