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Mesoscale Discussion 146
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241831Z - 241930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF SMALL HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE IN THE
   DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE
   NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER
   THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A
   FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OHIO DURING THAT
   TIME FRAME.  INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY IS RATHER WEAK...ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 50S F IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500
   J/KG MUCAPE.  WIND FIELDS...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN DEEP SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40
   KNOTS INDICATED AT THE ILN WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE.  LOCALIZED
   AREAS OF BACKED FLOW NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
   KENTUCKY MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF ROTATION IN DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
   CELLS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS CONVECTION MIGRATES TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO THIS
   AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE MARGINAL/BRIEF NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..COOK/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40218384 39898439 39488476 39058472 38678434 38398384
               38228306 38538237 39148232 39658270 40118343 40218384 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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