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Mesoscale Discussion 148
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN KY...NW TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7...

   VALID 260635Z - 260700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL BUT NON-ZERO WITH
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A NEW WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED BEYOND 07Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION....BUT LOCAL WFO
   EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDYR TO KLIT. THREE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
   MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SWRN KY...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NE AR
   HAVE SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATIONAL CHARACTER. THE LEAD CLUSTER OVER SW
   KY APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK GIVEN LOCATION
   ALONG THE FRONT AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IN HPX VWP DATA.
   FARTHER WEST...50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED IN PAH VWP
   DATA...SEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE N/S-ORIENTED ALIGNMENT OF THE
   CLUSTERS...COULD YET SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PERHAPS
   PRODUCING A SPOT OR TWO OF WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BUT
   GIVEN CONTINUED OVERTURNING/DEARTH OF INSTABILITY /WITH MINIMAL
   MUCAPE PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...EVEN THIS RISK SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36139112 36888993 37028837 37108797 37198742 37068724
               36848718 36558720 35958804 35948851 35848974 35699064
               36139112 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2015
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