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Mesoscale Discussion 150
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC/SC PIEDMONT AND MUCH OF VA/DE/MD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26...27...28...

   VALID 242146Z - 242315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   26...27...28...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO
   RISK...WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM
   NORTH-CENTRAL NC/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA NORTHEASTWARD TO MUCH OF EASTERN
   VA/MD INCLUDING THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDORS. TORNADO WATCHES 26/27/28
   CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM/9PM/11PM EST RESPECTIVELY.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 21Z...A NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT
   NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NJ SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   PA/CENTRAL MD AND NEAR THE DC VICINITY...SOUTHWESTWARD TO BETWEEN
   THE CHARLOTTESVILLE/FARMVILLE VA AREAS. ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
   VA/DELMARVA PENINSULA...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK WILL CONTINUE AT
   LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS
   CONTINUE TO RACE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN NEAR-COASTAL AREAS.

   OTHERWISE...A MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER PROBABILITY TORNADO SCENARIO
   IS STEADILY APPROACHING ITS PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING FROM THE NC PIEDMONT /INCLUDING THE RALEIGH VICINITY/ AND
   CENTRAL VA TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD COINCIDENT WITH A BROKEN
   BAND OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
   STRONG SUPERCELLS. WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT
   IN THE WARM SECTOR /MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...SURFACE
   PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC/EAST-CENTRAL VA.
   WITH NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BACK
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY...LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM RALEIGH NC AND
   WAKEFIELD/STERLING VA ARE SAMPLING 60-70 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
   2-3 KM AGL...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM SRH THAT IS
   LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
   TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED PEAK-RISK CORRIDOR
   ACROSS NC/VA.

   ..GUYER.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

   LAT...LON   38467815 39687688 39477525 36727578 34917708 34207992
               35737951 36547895 38467815 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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