Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 151
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 151 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH
   TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261730Z - 261930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED...SHORT-DURATION SVR-TSTM RISK WILL EXIST
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A
   WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER STARR COUNTY TX
   WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND A SFC WIND-SHIFT
   AXIS. AHEAD OF THE ESEWD-MOVING STORM...DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING
   SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AMIDST
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F IS SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER A
   MODIFIED 12Z BRO RAOB. THIS RAOB SAMPLES STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   THAT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WITH THE BRO VWP SAMPLING AROUND
   30-35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...SUSTAINED...MARGINAL-SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS MAY BE EXHIBITED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM AS IT
   TRACKS TOWARD THE BROWNSVILLE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   OR SO. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORT-TERM. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE SMALL
   SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SVR-TSTM RISK IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
   WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 03/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26209841 26499854 26739828 26639772 26319729 25959723
               26209841 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 26, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities