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Mesoscale Discussion 151
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INTO E-CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231850Z - 232045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
   SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
   TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...WHILE ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS SHOULD FORM SWD ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE.

   DISCUSSION...SERN PORTION OF A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS RECENTLY OVERTAKEN
   THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA...EFFECTIVELY
   INHIBITING ANY FURTHER NWD ADVANCEMENT. A RELATIVELY ROBUST
   TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS NOW APPARENT WITH INSOLATION S OF THE
   BOUNDARY SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 50S
   NOTED IN THE COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM WINDS ARE WEAK IN TBW/MLB
   VWP DATA...3-5 KM AGL WINDS AOA 40 KT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED BY TLH/JAX
   VWP IN THE DECAYING/STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE MCS. GIVEN THE
   ROBUSTNESS OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR AND LYING ON THE
   FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD
   PERSIST AND BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD
   YIELD SWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS INTO E-CNTRL FL IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 02/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29368268 29718096 27628030 27608072 28198130 28558199
               28858268 29368268 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2014
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