MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 120036Z - 120200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   CONTINUE ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY
   BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND TALLAHASSEE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. 
   BUT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO LOW/LIMITED TO
   NECESSITATE A WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORM CELL WHICH INITIATED
   NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO TRACK
   INLAND ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
   BOUNDARY EAST OF PANAMA CITY.  IT APPEARS THIS STORM COULD PROGRESS
   INTO AREAS NEAR OF JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
   PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
   WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND
   RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN A 40-50
   KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY...
   AND CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  IT DOES NOT
   APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO COULD
   FORM OFFSHORE...AND INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING INLAND ALONG A
   SIMILAR...BUT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH PATH...NEAR PANAMA CITY...INTO THE
   01-03Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 02/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   29698653 29968632 30168586 30278546 30348477 30218444
               30018492 29928554 29678621 29698653