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Mesoscale Discussion 152
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...AND CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 242346Z - 250145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
   DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS A
   CONSOLIDATING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EASTERN PA. TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE HAVE RISEN INTO
   THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN NJ...AS INCREASING SLY
   FLOW SUPPORTS POLEWARD THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THIS
   OCCURS...THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY IN
   SPOTS...SUCH THAT INCREASINGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FAVOR
   POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE...DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FURTHERMORE...VWP DATA TO THE EAST OF THIS
   LINE SAMPLE VERY STRONG SLY FLOW /APPROX 65-75 KTS/ AROUND 1-3 KM
   ABOVE THE SFC...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL WIND THREAT. AS SUCH...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE...CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE SRH AS INDICATED BY
   KDIX VWP DATA. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40517647 40777650 41007623 41267560 41407428 41567361
               41717233 41367213 40727274 40307442 40337614 40517647 

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Page last modified: February 25, 2016
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