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Mesoscale Discussion 153
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...western KY...far southern
   IL...far southeast MO...northwest TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072257Z - 080100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection spreading across portions of the lower OH
   Valley region and vicinity into the early evening hours could become
   locally severe. However, the conditional nature of the severe risk,
   and limited temporal window for such risk, along with the
   anticipated limited coverage of the risk, should preclude Watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Convection developing along a wind-shift boundary
   extending from west-central IN to far southern IL is producing
   lightning north of the Paducah area. Recent visible satellite
   imagery indicates shallow convective turrets evolving farther north
   along this boundary in south-central IN. This activity lies along a
   segment of the boundary that is intercepting a weakly destabilized
   boundary-layer owing to antecedent insolation. There is some
   potential for convection to continue to locally intensify prior to
   nocturnal cooling and stabilization, while spreading
   eastward/east-southeastward. Given the presence of around 150-250
   m2/s2 of effective SRH and adequate deep shear, the risk for a
   tornado or damaging wind gust cannot be entirely ruled out. However,
   veered pre-frontal flow resulting in weak frontal convergence
   (especially with southward extent) coupled with convectively
   recycled air constituting inflow within the warm sector, should tend
   to temper the severe risk and minimize convective coverage.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 02/07/2017


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   38588515 37228646 36508795 36418908 36678947 37088947
               37318873 37778765 38778640 38928564 38588515 

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