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Mesoscale Discussion 154
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271954Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
   THE SCNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS COULD
   HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
   SWD ACROSS ERN AND SRN FL. ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...SFC DEWPOINTS
   SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
   LOWER 90S F. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS SCNTRL
   FL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN
   ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
   WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. AS A LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA
   BAY...MOVES INLAND ACROSS SCNTRL FL...THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY CELL
   ROTATION. IF CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE CAN OBTAIN SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
   INSTABILITY AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SCNTRL FL INCREASES.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 03/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27248029 27558070 27368134 26318187 26018156 25948131
               26038077 26118053 26558013 26938014 27248029 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2015
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