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Mesoscale Discussion 155
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
   IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
   MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
   DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
   DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
   MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
   FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
   17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
               47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
               46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411 

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Page last modified: March 28, 2015
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