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Mesoscale Discussion 155
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 291906Z - 291930Z

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED REGION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES UP TO 1"/HR
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
   ---INCLUDING THE I-90 CORRIDOR --- THROUGH MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON
   BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL
   HUMIDITY.

   DISCUSSION...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A
   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
   AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD-FRONT ALOFT.
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO BELOW FREEZING BELOW MOST OF THE
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEWEY TO
   MARTIN...THEN CUTTING SOUTHEASTWARD TO AINSWORTH AND O'NEILL NE. A
   MESOSCALE WAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
   ZONE EVIDENT IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES...AND THE
   LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT IN WAA WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT/TRANSLATION OF
   THE NARROW HEAVY SNOW BANDS INTO THE MCD AREA. THE LIMITING FACTOR
   FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW IS THE SUB SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
   ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT
   BY SUBLIMATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWFALL RATES MOSTLY DIMINISHING TO UNDER
   1"/HR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..CONIGLIO/GOSS.. 02/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44320274 44370133 44260015 43819924 43229882 42789906
               42729963 43030061 43400182 43430212 43590270 43710299
               44050300 44320274 

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Page last modified: February 29, 2016
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