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Mesoscale Discussion 156
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN/CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292330Z - 010130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN
   ERN TX PANHANDLE MAY STRUGGLE TO GREATLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS WITHIN A MEAGERLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SUNSET...A
   STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD ADVECT GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE TX BIG
   COUNTRY AND YIELD AN INCREASING SEVERE HAIL THREAT LATER THIS
   EVENING AS ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP INTO WRN/CNTRL OK.

   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A TROUGH FROM NEAR PRATT KS
   INTO THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS. AS CONVERGENCE HAS
   STRENGTHENED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE
   FORMED IN THE TX PANHANDLE. BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED AT PRESENT
   WITH LOWER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND GPS PW VALUES AROUND 0.60
   INCHES. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
   STORMS GIVEN A DRY MICROBURST TYPE ENVIRONMENT...THE MORE PROMINENT
   RISK SHOULD AWAIT TILL AFTER SUNSET AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS
   WILL RESULT AN INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS TO BE DRAWN FROM THE
   BIG COUNTRY /WHERE MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS RESIDE AT PRESENT/.
   RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXPANDING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36139980 36249904 36229852 36179792 35989737 35659683
               35069692 34579752 34229860 34279992 34700068 34800071
               35170072 35650046 36139980 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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