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Mesoscale Discussion 156
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast GA and north FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072358Z - 080230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds accompanying a squall line may
   spread east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29 within the 0100Z-0230Z
   time frame, perhaps warranting downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A well-established squall line with multiple embedded
   bowing segments/LEWP structures will continue progressing eastward
   into the evening hours. Forward motions on some of the strongest
   surges embedded within the line are around 40-50 kt in magnitude,
   suggesting areas of wind damage likely accompanying this activity.
   As convection continues to spread eastward during the next few
   hours, the effects of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization could
   result in lessening convective intensity. However, given a
   relatively moist air mass characterized by lower/middle 60s surface
   dewpoints supporting around 300-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the
   line, and adequate deep shear, the damaging-wind risk may continue
   to spread eastward -- especially given the established cold pool.
   Also, recent southward propagation of the southern flank of the MCS
   across the far north Gulf may eventually be associated with
   damaging-wind potential later this evening along the west coast of
   the Peninsula. Regardless, nocturnal stabilization limits overall
   confidence in the eventual severe risk, and convective/environmental
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 02/07/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29458287 31238257 31908207 31268147 29498157 28808235
               29068275 29458287 

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