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| Mesoscale Discussion 156 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NE LA...CNTRL MS AND WCNTRL AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121754Z - 121930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NE LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. WW
ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREATS.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING IN CNTRL MS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. SHORT-TERM MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ALSO SUGGEST SEVERAL
SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AT JACKSON WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
STRONG. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5 TO 7.0
C/KM RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FASTER
MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 02/12/2013
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32768844 32878983 32499141 31979184 31539142 31739019
31888871 32118819 32418807 32768844
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