MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE LA...CNTRL MS AND WCNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121754Z - 121930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM NE LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL. HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. WW
   ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREATS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
   ONGOING IN CNTRL MS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A 40 TO 50 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET. SHORT-TERM MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ALSO SUGGEST SEVERAL
   SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   STATES. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET ARE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AT JACKSON WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
   STRONG. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5 TO 7.0
   C/KM RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
   IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FASTER
   MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 02/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   32768844 32878983 32499141 31979184 31539142 31739019
               31888871 32118819 32418807 32768844