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Mesoscale Discussion 157
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0849 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
   ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 010249Z - 010845Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING 1+ INCH
   SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
   DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
   UNDERWAY FROM CENTRAL IOWA EASTWARD TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS
   DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
   700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST
   WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
   REGION REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS AS LOW
   AS 5-7F IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA/... CONTINUED
   LIFT/PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY MOISTENING/COOLING
   BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  THE PRIMARY
   PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH
   LOCALIZED AREAS FROM EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY
   EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SLEET AS PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH A MODEST
   WARM LAYER /AROUND 0C/ AROUND 850 MB.  OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ONE OR
   TWO BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
   LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING GREATER THAN ONE-INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
   RATES OVERNIGHT.

   ..COOK.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43689051 43629174 43359269 42819331 42319328 41909288
               41949134 42059020 42238930 42288846 42538812 43128834
               43568944 43689051 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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