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Mesoscale Discussion 157
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
   SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
   FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
   SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
   SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
   WITH THESE STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
   CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
   COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
   THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
   MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
   TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
   SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
   WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
   FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
   FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
   8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C. 

   WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
   IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
               32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
               33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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