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Mesoscale Discussion 158
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1018 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Far northeast NY...Most of VT...Southern NH

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 080418Z - 080915Z

   SUMMARY...Precipitation is expected to transition from snow to
   freezing rain during the next few hours, generally from west to
   east, with freezing rain rates over 0.03" an hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent CCX radar imagery shows a melting level around 5
   kft with some suggestions of remelting with a subtle ZDR increase
   and lower CC values closer to the radar. Most of the surface
   observations around the region are currently reporting snow.
   However, based on the CCX dual-pol data coupled with other
   observational trends, including gradually increasing surface and
   mid-level temperatures (inferred from recent RAP soundings and
   strong warm-air advection profiles on the CCX and GYX VADs), a
   transition to mixed precipitation appears likely. Additionally,
   increased large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the
   approaching shortwave trough had resulted in an areal expansion of
   the precipitation shield upstream of the region across upstate NY.
   These two factors suggest that freezing rain will become more
   widespread across the lower elevations of far northeast NY, most of
   VT, and southern NH during the next few hours. Freezing rain rates
   above 0.03" an hour have been observed across portions of upstate NY
   and western MA during the past several hours and similar rates are
   anticipated across the discussion area once the transition to
   freezing rain occurs.

   ..Mosier.. 02/08/2017


   LAT...LON   45047243 45047189 44957157 44887152 44437166 44187164
               43937137 43827118 43717095 43607086 43407057 43197046
               42997055 42697101 42527167 42707238 43057316 43387362
               44287376 44817345 45017301 45047243 

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