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Mesoscale Discussion 159
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MD 159 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33...

   VALID 010533Z - 010630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK CONTINUES MAINLY WITH THE
   SRN PORTION OF A QLCS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND EVENTUALLY SERN OK.
   PORTIONS OF SERN OK ARE RECOMMENDED FOR AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 33.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE TRAILING
   WRN FLANK OF AN EXTENSIVE QLCS FROM NERN TO S-CNTRL OK. THIS
   BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FED BY UPSTREAM STEEP 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEG C/KM CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   FARTHER E...THE SRN PORTION OF THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING PORTION OF
   THE QLCS /CURRENTLY ACROSS PONTOTOC COUNTY/ SHOULD FEATURE STRONG TO
   PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES AS
   IT OVERSPREADS A PLUME OF 56-58 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS. GIVEN THE
   10Z EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WW...A DOWNSTREAM AREAL EXTENSION OF THE
   WATCH IS RECOMMENDED.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36109550 36089482 35899433 35539418 35139425 34579448
               33999517 33819636 33929783 34359809 34739794 34879680
               36109550 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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