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Mesoscale Discussion 159
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX...NRN
   AR...SRN MO

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 021327Z - 021930Z

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED
   PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
   OZARK PLATEAU THIS MORNING...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO
   THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   ROOTED ATOP THE STRONG INVERSION OVERLYING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT
   IS SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE REGION. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE FRINGES OF STRONGER
   ASCENT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A SRN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER AZ/NM ARE
   ENCROACHING ON THIS BUOYANCY. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION PRODUCING SLEET FROM SWRN OK
   TO THE OZARKS. AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...THE
   INCREASE IN ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
   CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE PRECIPITATION FALLOUT FROM
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STIMULATES PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER
   STRATUS DECK /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/.

   DESPITE ELEVATED WARM NOSE TEMPERATURES OF 6-12C AROUND H85
   SUPPORTING COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS PER THE 12Z
   SOUNDINGS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SHALLOW PBL -- I.E. AOB
   -10C WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FOR
   AREAS FROM NRN AR TO SERN/S-CNTRL OK AND ADJACENT N-CNTRL TX WHERE
   MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE A LITTLE
   WARMER -- THOUGH STILL BELOW 0C -- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
   LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR
   WILL BE LIKELY. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES
   AROUND 0.25 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. THE HIGHEST
   PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO
   SERN/S-CNTRL OK AND ADJACENT N-CNTRL TX INVOF A PLUME OF 0.75-1-INCH
   PW PER GPS DATA.

   THE OVERALL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SLEET/FREEZING
   RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LOCALLY
   ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.

   ..COHEN.. 03/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32959867 33749902 35369782 36809590 37239379 37009171
               36249091 35739207 35179395 34439492 32909677 32959867 

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Page last modified: March 02, 2014
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