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Mesoscale Discussion 159
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301811Z - 302045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING
   THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL
   ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC
   OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA.
   DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE
   CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO
   RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED
   DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
   GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS
   MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS.

   MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY
   7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z
   JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
   CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY
   LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR
   LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS
   IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796
               31368740 30808309 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2015
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