MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 130446Z - 130645Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA
   THROUGH 06Z...WHERE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
   PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED
   DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES ACROSS S CENTRAL GA /NEAR AMG/.  THE
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
   WARM FRONT...WHERE WAA HAS BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50 KT
   SWLY LLJ.  MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG IS FEEDING THIS
   CONVECTION FROM THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...BUT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
   STILL PRESENT.  GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO
   SWLY/WSWLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AT UPSTREAM LOCATIONS...THE
   FOCUSED ZONE OF WAA/ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE GA COAST OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
   BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
   LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT IN AN OTHERWISE STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...BUT A ISOLD DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.  THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND A
   RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT CORRIDOR SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
   REMAIN RELATIVELY CONFINED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA
   FOR SIGNS OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 02/13/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31158145 31128202 31198270 31318344 31488363 31668355
               31828302 31998216 32048127 31958089 31778077 31258106
               31158145