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Mesoscale Discussion 160
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR TO NORTHERN MS/SOUTHWEST TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311741Z - 311915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PERIODIC BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL AR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A PROBABLE
   INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS/SOUTHWEST
   TN.

   DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL ACROSS CENTRAL AR JUST SOUTH OF
   LITTLE ROCK AS OF 1730Z/1230PM CDT MAY CONTINUE PRODUCE PERIODIC
   BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS STORM IS LIKELY
   BEING INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT IS READILY APPARENT OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. AHEAD OF THIS
   STORM...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   STEADILY ERODE...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON AMID WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. AIDED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND MODESTLY STRENGTHENING DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT /SPLITTING/ SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 03/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34739254 34799228 35218951 34128823 33268951 34099238
               34739254 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2015
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