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Mesoscale Discussion 160
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO WRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33...

   VALID 010747Z - 010915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
   OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. 
   THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...BASED ON THE LATEST MRMS MESH DATA...SEVERE HAIL
   POTENTIAL HAS GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AN ISOLATED INTENSE CELL
   ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGER-SCALE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER AREA.  THIS
   STORM APPEARS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION...WHERE THE INFLOW OF MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR IS
   MAXIMIZED.  ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE
   ARKLATEX TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF TEXARKANA BY 10-11Z. 
   HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS...BASED ON THE LATEST RAPID
   REFRESH OUTPUT...THAT SUPPORTING FORCING WILL WEAKEN...AND IT IS NOT
   CLEAR THAT THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.

   OTHERWISE...THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSING ALONG
   AT GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE LEVELS.  WIND GUSTS...AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT THERE APPEARS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
   FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

   LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT...IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...IS SUPPORTING
   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA.  A FURTHER
   INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
   THROUGH THE 10-11Z TIME FRAME...AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  GIVEN THE CONTINUING
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
   NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS TULSA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR MAY
   NOT BE AS STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION AS IT IS TO THE SOUTH AND
   EAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER OVERALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND CURRENTLY
   SEEMS MOSTLY MARGINAL.

   ..KERR.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36919417 36989220 35769161 34529249 33309454 33989614
               34909675 36249708 36799648 36919417 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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