MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE LA...SE AR...N CNTRL MS INTO W CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...
   
   VALID 271615Z - 271745Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37
   CONTINUES.
   
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS VEERED TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
   WEAKENED...BUT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 30+ KT...FROM UPPER
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  WHILE INITIAL
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS IN A MORE STABLE
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA...THERE
   APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS NOW
   CENTERED NEAR THE GREENWOOD AREA.  MODELS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR
   CONCERNING THE POSITIONING OF THE STRONG UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL JET
   ...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
   REGION WITHIN ITS EXIT REGION.  BUT...UPPER FORCING MAY REMAIN
   SUFFICIENT FOR THE CONSOLIDATION OF A NEW STORM CLUSTER ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 16-18Z.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...40 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.  FARTHER UPSTREAM... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
   CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS /LOUISIANA BORDER...ON
   THE EDGE OF A CAPPING ELEVATED WARM LAYER.  BUT...THIS ACTIVITY
   LIKELY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO WEAKER FORCING.
   
   THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
   STORMS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME AN INCREASING
   CONCERN AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP...
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/27/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   34169383 34099279 34039171 34089078 34048938 33938869
               33238778 32648804 32428846 32458942 32529063 33209371
               34169383