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Mesoscale Discussion 161
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0161
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0704 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2017

   Areas affected...northern AL/GA and middle/eastern TN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...

   Valid 090104Z - 090230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across
   the remainder of ww31 this evening.  Locally damaging winds appear
   to be the main threat.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be
   overspreading the TN valley and northern Gulf states as exit region
   of digging mid-level jet quickly approaches.  Convection has
   gradually increased within this zone just ahead of a
   sharpening/surging cold front.  00z soundings BMX and BNA exhibit
   modest mid-level lapse rates, but adequate buoyancy for robust
   convection given the strong bulk shear observed.  Isolated
   supercells remain possible within an elongated corridor of
   near-frontal convection and the most likely severe threat is
   damaging winds.  However, marginally severe hail could be noted with
   longer-lived rotating updrafts.  Overall severe threat should spread
   east-southeast across the remainder of ww31 by 05z.

   ..Darrow.. 02/09/2017


   LAT...LON   33968836 36388705 36378308 33968452 33968836 

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