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Mesoscale Discussion 161
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL...CNTRL/SRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311747Z - 311945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
   FROM CNTRL AL INTO CNTRL/SRN GA. A FEW CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF
   THIS ACTIVITY...POSING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF
   TOWERING CU STRETCHING FROM BHM SEWD TO LGC...WITH A COUPLE
   LIGHTNING STRIKES MORE RECENTLY NOTED. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION IS NOT READILY APPARENT...AS SFC OBS SHOW WEAK/NEARLY
   UNIFORM WLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOW-MIDLEVEL
   PERTURBATION WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND WAS QUICKLY MOVING
   EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPTICK
   IN CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH
   PRESENT...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THE TREND
   FOR INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. 

   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW /WEAK IN THE LOW-LEVELS/ SUGGEST THAT
   A FEW CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND COULD POSE A
   THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL. PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTIES WILL REMAIN LACK OF OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL AS THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY ACCOMPANYING
   THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 03/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31988693 32678842 34198817 34318773 34018606 33148292
               32628212 31578228 31348292 31418507 31758620 31988693 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2015
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