MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...
   
   VALID 131338Z - 131445Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 35 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 35 CONTINUES UNTIL 14Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   GA...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW SUCH THAT WATCH
   EXPIRATION IS PROBABLE. SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR MAY
   CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN FL...ALTHOUGH
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN /AND UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM/.
   
   DISCUSSION...INITIAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS EARLY THIS
   MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA HAVE NOW SPREAD EASTWARD OFFSHORE.
   ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 35 IN
   VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY IN THE
   SHORT TERM. THAT SAID...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BIT
   FARTHER S/SW FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH FL IN THE
   VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SW-NE
   ACROSS THE REGION. SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE
   OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT VIA THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
   LOWER-MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH MODEST OVERALL CONVERGENCE
   AND RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL INVERSION /AROUND 700MB SUCH AS 12Z
   JACKSONVILLE OBSERVED RAOB/ MAY BE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE
   CERTAIN/CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK. SHOULD STRONGER UPDRAFTS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED...A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST ACROSS NORTH
   FL/PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA GIVEN THE STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL
   NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/13/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31458275 31828204 31368125 29718176 29438316 29998357
               31458275