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Mesoscale Discussion 163
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX/FAR
   EASTERN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312027Z - 312230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT
   PARTS OF NORTH TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AT LEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION.
   LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-AFTERNOON SHOWS AN
   INCREASINGLY DEEP CU FIELD PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK...WITH OTHER/NEWER CU NOTED AS FAR WEST
   AS KIOWA COUNTY OK. THIS WEST-EAST CORRIDOR ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH A
   WIND SHIFT AND ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE FIRST PART
   OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
   CONTINUED HEATING/WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
   LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN
   WEAKER-CALIBER FORCING MECHANISMS...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS
   FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND/OR
   THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT NORTH TX. IN VICINITY
   OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE...THAT IS WHERE DEEPER MIXING /HIGH-BASED CU
   NOTED ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/ WILL COINCIDE WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   EASTERLIES/SOMEWHAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR/NORTH OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS VIRTUALLY NIL AND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE
   UNSTABLE.

   WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SAMPLING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN
   EXCESS OF 8C PER KM/...80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOWER 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HALF OF OK AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL TX. WINDS
   THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM AGL WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT WHERE STORMS DO
   FORM...ADEQUATE VEERING/STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 03/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35400035 36000007 35809843 35399732 35139457 34619493
               33569635 33099806 33139910 33199960 33480015 33760029
               34550026 35400035 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2015
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