Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 163
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 163 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND LOWER MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 011806Z - 020000Z

   SUMMARY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO
   DEEPEN OVER INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON IN THE
   HEAVIER BANDS...WITH RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER
   BANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA IN THE
   2100-2300 UTC PERIOD.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
   INDIANA AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO BORDER BY 2000 UTC AS
   SHARP/STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATING REGION
   OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PV APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO A REGION OF STEADY MODERATE
   SNOWFALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS INITIAL AREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY
   EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO 1 IN/HR
   SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 2000-2100 UTC BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHERN
   ONTARIO THEREAFTER. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIEST
   ACTIVITY...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED
   OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA BETWEEN
   2200-0000 UTC WHERE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXITING LOW-LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT
   SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
   THE MCD AREA...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS BEFORE
   DEEPER COLD ADVECTION/NEUTRAL-TO-NEGATIVE VERTICAL VELOCITIES ENTER
   THE AREA BY 2300-0000 UTC. THE 850-MB FREEZING LINE -- DEPICTED ON
   THE MCD IMAGE AT 2000 UTC -- IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY DELINIATE THE
   REGIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE ALL SNOW FROM A MIXTURE OF
   SNOW/SLEET...AND THEREFORE DEFINES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
   EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..CONIGLIO/LEITMAN.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43808450 43968363 44038303 43868241 43638239 43238237
               42848248 42748291 42548364 42418421 42298461 42128498
               41798572 41878620 42568616 43088580 43318548 43808450 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 02, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities