MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 141838Z - 141945Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
   STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. A WW
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN FL HAS LIFTED N DURING THE
   DAY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO JUST SOUTH OF
   KFMY.  SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
   TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS THE AFTN
   PROGRESSES...MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL EXIST SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT ALONG WITH WSW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45 KTS.  TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY FORMING INTO
   SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES OF
   NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS OF
   STRONGEST HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.  THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT IS SUCH
   THAT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 02/14/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   26758227 26988220 27068166 27348073 27308027 26677994
               25828007 25258043 25168110 25898172 26758227