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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...
VALID 272040Z - 272145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37
CONTINUES.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 37 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COLD INTRUSION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...WITH THE LEADING SURFACE FRONT NOW
CURVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS
BORDER AREA INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A MOIST RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE FRONT....AHEAD
OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF A
CAPPING WARM MID-LEVEL LAYER...WHICH MAY YET DRIFT A BIT FARTHER TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. BUT...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION BASED ABOVE THE DEEPENING
FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.
..KERR.. 02/27/2009
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35739399 35749288 35199146 34589091 33619128 33689265
34659451 35739399
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