MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NRN LA...INTO SE MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...36...37...
   
   VALID 052339Z - 060115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   35...36...37...CONTINUES.
   
   WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP...NEAR SATURATED
   MOIST LAYER WEAKLY CAPPED BY A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...CONTRIBUTING
   TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  AND...THIS CONTINUES TO
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
   PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAVORABLE
   FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.  THOUGH THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   SOUTHWESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC JET EAST OF UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED
   TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 100 KT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. 
   AND...THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO
   THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
   THE SQUALL LINE AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH
   02-03Z.  
   
   THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH MOST CONVECTION.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
   
   33159350 33829364 34379355 35319321 35959267 36609210
   37089139 37409039 37268953 36838930 35988983 34669073
   33659131 33139194 33079252 32999306