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Mesoscale Discussion 165
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS THROUGH CENTRAL
   AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011942Z - 012145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 21Z ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL. SHOULD STORMS
   DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK DESTABILIZATION WAS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AS
   BROKEN CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
   WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH
   PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 60 F...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
   POOR. A WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
   MS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   IS WEAK...WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW NOTED IN SFC OBS.
   FURTHERMORE...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL GIVEN A
   STOUT EML NOTED ON THE 18Z LIX RAOB. WITHOUT STRONGER HEATING AND
   THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT
   TENUOUS/CONDITIONAL. 

   DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE UPPER
   TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
   KT WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEVERE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   AFOREMENTIONED EML. AND 19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 7-8 DEG C PER KM AS FAR EAST AS THE MS/AL BORDER. A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH MOST INTENSE
   STORMS...BUT POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCUR.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33288568 32948604 32438679 32088744 31638837 31528892
               31438984 31509049 31649068 31879080 32299074 32689046
               32858992 32928894 33178772 33408721 33548710 33868666
               33948621 33908591 33668566 33438559 33288568 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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