MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX TO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 181929Z - 182130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/FAR WESTERN AR
   AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST TX WHERE CELLULAR CU IS READILY
   EVIDENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS ONLY MODEST MOIST/UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CLOUD BREAKS
   AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
   THE ARKLATEX. WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
   WIND PROFILES...ACCENTUATED BY 60+ KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
   ATOP SOUTHERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO...ALTHOUGH MERGING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS WILL
   EVOLVE AS THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..GUYER/HART.. 02/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   36109447 35249336 34239280 32259330 31639405 31459454
               31279567 32329643 36109447