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Mesoscale Discussion 166
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...DC...CNTRL MD

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 030547Z - 031045Z

   SUMMARY...A MIX OF ALL WINTER PRECIP TYPES WILL PERSIST AND
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD THIS MORNING. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
   RATES THROUGH 12Z WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN WV INTO CNTRL
   VA...REACHING 0.10-0.25 IN/HR. TOWARDS 12Z...A TRANSITION TO
   MODERATE SNOW/SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
   SRN WV TOWARDS THE DC METRO AREA WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR.

   DISCUSSION...05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT ARCING ACROSS
   SWRN VA TO THE SERN VA/NERN NC BORDER...WITH THE WET-BULB FREEZING
   LINE LAGGING THE FRONT FROM SRN WV TO CNTRL MD. VWP DATA FROM
   LWX/RLX ONLY SAMPLED AROUND 10 KT 0-1 KM NLYS. THESE WILL LIKELY
   STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS
   FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   INCREASING CAA BELOW THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION NOTED IN 00Z BNA/IAD
   RAOBS AND RECENT AMDAR DATA NEAR BWI. ONGOING RAIN OVER MOST OF VA
   INTO DC/CNTRL MD WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER PTYPES AS AN EXTENSIVE
   PRECIPITATION SWATH PERSISTS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR DOWNSTREAM OF
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OZARK PLATEAU.

   HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SRN WV AND
   CNTRL VA FROM TN/KY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES E/NEWD.
   DOMINANT WINTER PTYPES SHOULD BE FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY BEHIND THE
   SURFACE FREEZING LINE...WITH AN INCREASINGLY BROAD CORRIDOR OF MIXED
   SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. TOWARDS 12Z...TRANSITION TO
   MAINLY SNOW/SLEET FROM N/S WILL OCCUR WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOWFALL
   RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR MOST PROBABLE FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WV TOWARDS DC.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37178168 37788239 38318225 38668126 39027942 39597749
               39747668 39647621 39407600 38767623 37967795 37667921
               37468070 37178168 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2014
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