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Mesoscale Discussion 167
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012251Z - 020045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STILL MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE
   THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF NWRN GA TO ERN LA. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LOCALIZED HAIL RISK ON THE SWRN END
   OF THE ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BAND.

   DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE ONGOING
   ALONG AN ELONGATED NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD FRONT/REMNANT COLD POOL...ONE
   ACROSS NRN AL AND THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL LA. THE SWRN AREA IS
   CURRENTLY POSING A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITHIN A PLUME OF
   LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM AIR
   MASS IS GENERALLY ENVELOPED IN A STRATOCU FIELD...SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE AT LEAST WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
   CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS PER MODIFIED 19Z JAN RAOB.
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INFLUENCE OF THE BROADER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN WLY 700-MB WINDS MAY
   SUPPORT A MAINTENANCE OF A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT TO THE E ACROSS SRN MS
   WITH AN ASSOCIATED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   FARTHER TO THE NE...BUOYANCY IS MEAGER PER 21Z BMX RAOB WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO UPPER
   40S WITH ERN EXTENT. THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY COMPARATIVELY GREATER
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ULTIMATELY SUSTAIN A
   COUPLE SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AS WELL.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31609190 31119195 30829143 30788990 31078890 31938780
               32968547 33418405 33858358 34178381 34188427 33878634
               32608972 31609190 

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Page last modified: March 02, 2016
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