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Mesoscale Discussion 167
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK AND SWD INTO THE TX BIG
   COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11...

   VALID 312305Z - 010030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX...WITH THE TX
   PANHANDLE ACTIVITY HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL TO HAVE A GREATER
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT SPREADS INTO WRN OK.  VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   FARTHER S OF WW #11...STORMS IN THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE TX BIG
   COUNTRY /SW-NW OF ABI/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR A
   FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...A LACK OF
   ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED GENERALLY
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A N-S CORRIDOR ACROSS THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST TX TO THE W-SW OF CDS.  STORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE THERMODYNAMICS /STEEP LAPSE
   RATES/ AND LARGE SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SUPPORTING
   HIGH-BASED OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS THUS FAR.  HOWEVER...GIVEN WLY
   MEAN FLOW REGIME...STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH #11 WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE
   SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF WW #11.

   A SEPARATE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 45 W
   ABI TO 60 WNW ABI.  STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.  WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS
   PORTION OF TX APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

   ..PETERS.. 03/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32560071 34140103 35420095 36230065 36389978 36019884
               35569879 34479898 33419941 32549988 32290063 32560071 

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