MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...
   
   VALID 182152Z - 182315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 36 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SEVERE HAIL
   REMAINS A CONCERN...ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE AN INCREASING DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO MERGE/SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN A
   NNE-SSW ORIENTED NEAR-COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS WESTERN AR INTO
   FAR NORTHEAST TX AS OF 20Z...WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
   OVERTAKING A PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX.
   OTHER RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
   THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR
   LESS/...MAINLY WITHIN THE NARROW MOIST AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD A FAR
   SOUTHWEST AR SURFACE LOW. THESE TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR
   COULD POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT
   INDICATIVE OF 250-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. OTHERWISE...CONGEALING
   STORMS WILL BE INCREASINGLY COMMON NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH BOUTS
   OF DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE A CONCERN THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   35539353 35399258 33229248 32209245 32229547 34409403
               35539353