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Mesoscale Discussion 168
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12...

   VALID 010108Z - 010215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. A
   LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS OVER
   THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES...BUT A STEADY DECLINE IN STORM INTENSITY IS
   EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. UNTIL THEN...A MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...A TRAINING...SLOW-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   FROM S-CENTRAL TN INTO NORTHEAST AL APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK
   INTENSITY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.
   THE SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND THAT BY ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AND
   A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING ON STORM
   TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES. HOWEVER...THE TRAINING AND
   SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ONSET OF
   NOCTURNAL COOLING PROCESSES LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECLINE IN
   INTENSITY. STILL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEGREES C/KM BASED
   ON REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT A WHILE LONGER.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34258766 34148709 33808549 32758247 31958248 31778325
               31978510 32348679 33268825 34278804 34258766 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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