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Mesoscale Discussion 169
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CST MON MAR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...FAR SRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032241Z - 040015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
   GA AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 01Z OVER A LIMITED SPATIAL AREA
   NEAR THE SAVANNAH VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE OVER SRN SC WITH
   A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD THROUGH SERN GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE.
   SEMI-DISCRETE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN
   INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A COUPLE OF
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   TATTNALL TO BRYAN COUNTIES. WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE 70S SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60...MODIFIED RAP
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE HAS REACHED ABOUT 500 J/KG. DESPITE VEERED
   SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT AND
   MODERATE CURVATURE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO FAVOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A BRIEF
   TORNADO...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

   LAT...LON   31018145 31358261 32168192 32858085 32937975 31018145 

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Page last modified: March 04, 2014
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