MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 182254Z - 190000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE THREAT EXISTS A LIMITED DISTANCE EAST OF WW 36
   INTO ERN AR. THREAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT
   TOWARD THE MS RIVER. DUE TO LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF DOWNSTREAM
   THREAT...A NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY. HOWEVER...WW 36 CAN
   CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED EAST AS TRENDS DICTATE.
   
   DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ADVANCING THROUGH CNTRL AND
   SWRN AR...WHILE OTHER LESS ORGANIZED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS ERN AR. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE REMAIN ORGANIZED WITH
   SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS OBSERVED. HOWEVER...TENDENCY HAS
   BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST
   OF THE THETA-E AXIS INTO ERN AR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE
   STABLE. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE
   LINE MIGHT MAINTAIN SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND POSE A SEVERE
   THREAT A COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES EAST OF WW 36.
   
   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   33549198 35179193 35939158 35759084 34349085 33579126
               33549198