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Mesoscale Discussion 171
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CST WED MAR 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...EXTREME NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022026Z - 022300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION CROSSING PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...DESPITE LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING. AN
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES A PLUME OF ASCENT PRECEDING
   A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. A MOSAIC-RADAR LOOP AND VIS IMAGERY IMPLY AN INCREASE
   IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS SERN CO...WITH A CG LIGHTNING STRIKE
   RECENTLY HAVING OCCURRED E OF SPRINGFIELD CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING PARTS OF NWRN OK AND
   VICINITY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   GPS DATA SUGGEST PW AROUND 0.25-0.40 INCH IMPLYING A DEARTH OF
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND SFC DEWPOINT-TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE ON
   THE ORDER OF 30-45F IN MANY AREAS. CLOUD LIQUID/ICE CONTENT WILL BE
   GREATLY LIMITED...AND LITTLE -- IF ANY -- LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF
   SUFFICIENT -- ALBEIT VERY LIMITED -- MLCAPE SUGGEST THAT A FEW DRY
   MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR -- EVEN WITH ONLY VIRGA. GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW
   WINDS MAY OCCUR.

   DCAPE REACHING AROUND 700-1000 J/KG AMIDST A DEEP/WELL-MIXED
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER...COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   BACKGROUND FLOW...SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
   GREATER MLCAPE AND THE PAUCITY OF MOISTURE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY NEGATE
   THE SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38090262 37710181 37500017 37179951 36719921 36209932
               35899987 35930198 36700313 38070379 38440332 38090262 

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Page last modified: March 02, 2016
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