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Mesoscale Discussion 171
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0850 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN AR/WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13...

   VALID 010150Z - 010315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT TO FAR NERN AR INTO
   SWRN TN THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF WW #13 INTO CENTRAL AR.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   NWRN AL THROUGH SWRN TN /HARDIN TO TIPTON COUNTIES.  A W/SWLY 20-30
   KT LLJ EXTENDING INTO THIS REGION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AT THE INTERSECTION OF A SWD-MOVING
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. 
   THIS LATTER SCENARIO HAS BEEN UNDERWAY WITH STORMS THAT HAD
   DEVELOPED AND MOVED SEWD FROM MISSISSIPPI COUNTY AR AND LAUDERDALE
   COUNTY TN.  THE W/SWLY LLJ IS PROVIDING A FEED OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY INTO NERN AR AND WRN TN...WHILE DEEP-LAYER VEERING AND
   STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   OF 30-40 KT.  HAIL WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING
   WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM IN CENTRAL AR...APPROACHING
   LIT FROM THE NORTH...GIVEN STRONG BULK SHEAR AND RESIDUAL MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. 

   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO NERN AR/WRN TN AT THIS
   TIME WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE PASSAGE OF THIS
   SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN VEERING OF THE LLJ AND AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING
   OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT.  THESE FACTORS...WHILE REDUCING THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...MAY NOT SUFFICIENTLY MINIMIZE IT SUCH THAT WW #13
   CAN EXPIRE AT 03Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR EITHER
   THE NEED FOR A NEW WW OR LOCAL WFO TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF THIS WATCH.

   ..PETERS.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35038802 35039017 34919121 34539169 34559226 34849268
               35289256 35539249 35749136 35899083 36479072 36559018
               36288955 35738871 35378803 35038802 

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