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| Mesoscale Discussion 171 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...CNTRL THROUGH SWRN AR AND NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...
VALID 182359Z - 190130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 02Z WILL EXIST FROM
NERN TX THROUGH NWRN LA INTO SWRN AND SCNTRL AR. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS AREA...BUT A
COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. COUNTIES CAN CONTINUE TO BE
ADDED ONTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 36 AS NECESSARY AS RIGHT MOVING
STORMS ADVANCE SEWD.
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM MODES PERSIST IN A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA
FROM NERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR. THESE STORMS ALSO EXIST IN THE
MOST FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
NRN END OF THE THETA-E AXIS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STORM MOTION
ARE SUPPORTING 200-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN THIS
AREA. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AOB 800 J/KG AND HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DISCRETE STORM
MODES...THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IN
THE REMAINDER OF WW 36 NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
..DIAL.. 02/18/2013
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32949432 33399352 34439214 35609136 35129125 34109177
33149220 31999266 31209396 31679514 32949432
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