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Mesoscale Discussion 172
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11...

   VALID 010224Z - 010330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN
   OK FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
   TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.  HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS
   WRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL OK SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
   LOW-LEVEL WAA INTO THE TWO ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS...1/ MOVING EWD
   EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK AND ADJACENT WRN N TX...AND
   2/ MOVING ESEWD THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL OK.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   WELL DEFINED MCV ATTENDANT TO THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WEST-CENTRAL
   OK.  ALTHOUGH NOT EASILY DISCERNIBLE IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...
   18Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL OK
   TONIGHT.  ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN AUGMENTING
   UPDRAFTS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH.  STORMS
   SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS ERN OK.  RESIDUAL
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF OK AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND BEYOND 03Z.

   ..PETERS.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34159942 34239965 35029967 35879983 36059922 35759822
               35619746 35639658 35569579 35459542 34929542 34009553
               33929728 33949844 34159942 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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