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Mesoscale Discussion 175
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SW AL...FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032307Z - 040130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO SW
   AL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   MUCH BEYOND 0130Z AND FOR THIS REASON...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED 70 TO 85 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN SRN AR AND NRN LA. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
   TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF
   THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LIFT NECESSARY TO
   CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   WARM SECTOR IS SMALL AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000
   J/KG MAINLY OVER SRN LA...SRN MS AND FAR SW AL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EARLY THIS EVENING. 

   CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM JACKSON
   MS TO MOBILE AL AT 00Z SHOW 70 TO 80 KT OF O-6 KM SHEAR ALONG WITH
   40 TO 45 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
   MARGINALLY SEVERE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY
   BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 03/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32208919 32158996 31839030 31259028 30998967 30668750
               30888673 31318659 31828678 32038774 32208919 

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Page last modified: March 04, 2016
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