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Mesoscale Discussion 175
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN MO AND SERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011739Z - 012015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY UNDERGO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN OK INTO NWRN AR...SWRN MO AND
   SERN KS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
   TIMING REGARDING IF AND WHEN STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IS
   UNCERTAIN...AND ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MS
   INTO NCNTRL AND NWRN AR THEN WWD THROUGH SRN KS. DESTABILIZATION IS
   OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS
   RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S...THOUGH
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS SLOWING THE RATE OF DIABATIC WARMING
   WITHIN THE SFC LAYER. RADAR...SATELLITE AND RUC DATA SHOW AN MCV
   OVER NERN OK MOVING NEWD. DEEPER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE
   IS AUGMENTING ASCENT AND PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO.
   INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR MIGHT FOSTER A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
   MOREOVER...A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH MCV CIRCULATION OVERLAPS
   THIS BOUNDARY FROM NERN OK...NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO RESULTING IN A
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF
   WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   MULTICELL IN CHARACTER...A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES IF ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37739352 37019239 36239213 35389264 35199374 35549478
               36709529 37779497 37739352 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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