MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN WV...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN KY...EXTREME
   SWRN VA...WRN AND NRN VA...WRN PANHANDLE OF MD.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...
   
   VALID 060949Z - 061115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45
   CONTINUES.
   
   FAST MOVING BUT GENERALLY WEAKENING LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
   CENTRAL/NRN WV PORTION OF WW WITHIN THE HOUR.  WW MAY BE CLEARED
   BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AIR MASS BECOMING DRIER WITH EWD EXTENT
   ACROSS WV...THEN MORE MOIST AGAIN ALONG AND E OF BLUE RIDGE ACROSS
   VA.  WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL THETAE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   RESULTS IN VERY WEAK TO NO CAPE EVIDENT ACROSS ERN WV.  LIGHTNING
   DATA SHOWS ACTIVITY HAS DEVOLVED FROM TSTMS TO MAINLY SHOWERS...WITH
   LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING NOTED SINCE CONVECTION MOVED E OF
   CRW AREA.  SOME REINVIGORATION OF TSTM POTENTIAL...AND OF ASSOCIATED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAY OCCUR E OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
   WRN/CENTRAL VA AFTER ABOUT 12Z.  THIS IS CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF
   ASSOCIATED SLAB OF FORCED ASCENT  BY THAT TIME.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND
   RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER ROBUST STABLE LAYER CAPPING MORE MOIST
   AIR MASS ACROSS VA...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F ARE
   EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY
   OF ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...
   
   37168334 37488219 38008111 39108064 39597989 39607926
   39557862 39277802 38977779 37857788 37097920 36878042
   36858253