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Mesoscale Discussion 176
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND...NRN OH...SERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 120911Z - 121415Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE SNOW FROM CNTRL IL TO SWRN LOWER MI WILL DEVELOP
   EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AND SHOULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS MODERATE
   RAIN TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY
   FOR A FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 992 MB CYCLONE OVER
   S-CNTRL IND WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING EWD TO THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY. THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH LATE
   MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF TWO AMPLIFYING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONGLY
   FORCED ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MAINTAINED...YIELDING A PERSISTENT
   SWATH OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LEAD IMPULSE. THIS
   ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CYCLONE
   WILL AID IN A NW TO SE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
   SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING
   TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OWING TO A DEEP NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE JUST BELOW FREEZING ALIGNED WITH THE STRONGEST
   ASCENT. FARTHER N ACROSS LOWER MI...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY
   OCCURRING...RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS
   PASSES OVER THROUGH MID-MORNING.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41048600 41268616 41678595 42298484 42648367 42868248
               41448165 41088238 40828423 40858524 40928568 41048600 

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Page last modified: March 12, 2014
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