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Mesoscale Discussion 176
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SE GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040504Z - 040730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN FL. WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   NEAR THE COAST OF SC SWWD INTO SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A SOLID
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.
   ALTHOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL INSTABILITY...A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LINE ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS FIELDS. THIS IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A MARGINAL WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE TRANSFERRED TO THE
   SURFACE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE LINE MAKING ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
   NRN FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 03/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30998251 30288362 29868396 29428323 29308246 29548108
               30068109 30408117 30588118 30928151 30998251 

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Page last modified: March 04, 2016
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