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Mesoscale Discussion 178
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...NRN VA...SRN PA...WRN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121543Z - 121815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY
   GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
   TRAVELS EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SRN PA DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS
   SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. TRAILING THE LOW IS A STRONG COLD FRONT
   WHERE SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES ARE BEING OBSERVED.
   MEANWHILE...SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE
   SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
   HOWEVER...AS OF 15Z DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY LOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY
   INSTABILITY NOTED ON MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

   THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS
   LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE FORCING WILL HELP COMPENSATE
   FOR LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER RADAR ECHOS CURRENTLY OVER
   SERN OH AS OF 1540Z ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS FORCING. THIS AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TODAY.

   AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS MAY SEE AN INCREASING THREAT BY LATE
   AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
   INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS VA INTO THE DELMARVA.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 03/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   39788087 40377920 40467839 40247820 39737841 38427926
               37837973 37128052 36918119 36908284 37108322 38138232
               39408136 39788087 

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Page last modified: March 12, 2014
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