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Mesoscale Discussion 179
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OK...AR...FAR SRN MO...WRN TN...AND NRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012214Z - 012345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID
   SOUTH OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG AND SWD OF A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
   DRAPED FROM E-CNTRL MO SEWD THROUGH WRN TN AND NRN AL. TEMPERATURES
   ACROSS THIS REGION GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
   80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MODERATELY
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
   7.5 DEG C ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. BROAD LIFT AHEAD
   OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS MAY PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING.

   WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS AND VWP FROM AREA RADARS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25-40 KT. AN ONGOING MCV NE OF
   SPRINGFIELD MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHILE ANOTHER SMALL MCV EVIDENT JUST NE
   OF FORT SMITH AR IS MOVING NEWD AS WELL. MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
   WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SRN MCV
   ARE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
   SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   MAY BE CONSIDERED.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36999230 36869102 36479000 35588889 34438883 33978985
               33729118 33749313 33929462 34279480 34769474 35439437
               36289373 36809308 36999230 

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