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Mesoscale Discussion 180
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 080042Z - 080145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE THREAT APPEARS CONDITIONAL
   AND FAIRLY ISOLATED...LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEED FOR A
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED IN A CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF THE
   METROPLEX HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 30-60
   MINUTES...WITH MODERATE MID TO LOW LEVEL ROTATION APPARENT. FWD 00Z
   RAOB DATA INDICATES A SLIGHT WARM LAYER STILL EXISTS BETWEEN 850-700
   MB. AND WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...CELLS LIKELY WILL BECOME
   ELEVATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO COOLER SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE RED RIVER. SOME GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STRONGER ELEVATED
   CONVECTION.

   FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK CONVECTION TOWARD ERATH AND MILLS COUNTIES
   APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO DEEPEN. DISPARITY IN HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL
   EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
   DEVELOP/BECOME SUSTAINED GIVEN POOR TIMING WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.
   HOWEVER...WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
   FEW MORE ELEVATED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33749714 33759741 33659774 33249799 32649840 32259862
               31999870 31779871 31529851 31429817 31399769 31539733
               31849704 32299675 32769663 33409677 33599688 33689699
               33749714 

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Page last modified: March 08, 2016
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